• Ethiopia earned $6.76 billion export revenue in first 8 months of FY 2025/26

• Export performance achieved 101% of government target

• Coffee exports generated over $1.5 billion, leading all commodities

• Gold exports exceeded $1 billion, driven by increased deliveries

• Oilseeds and pulses contributed over $1.2 billion combined

• Horticulture exports surpassed $500 million, showing steady growth

Why it matters?

Stronger export performance improves forex liquidity, easing import constraints and supporting trade, logistics, and industrial supply chains in Ethiopia.

• Coffee export earnings approach $3bn, up from about $1.4bn–$1.5bn in prior years
• Export volumes increased, exceeding 300,000 tonnes, driven by improved supply and pricing
• Global coffee prices declined after peaking, with futures falling from recent highs
• Brazil expected to produce over 60 million bags, increasing global supply
• Coffee accounts for over 30% of Ethiopia’s total export earnings
• FX inflows from coffee support import financing and reserve accumulation
• Price decline risks could reduce export earnings despite higher volumes

Why it matters?

Coffee drives a large share of Ethiopia’s FX inflows, directly financing imports. A global price decline, despite higher export volumes, could reduce FX availability, affecting trade balance, logistics demand, and import capacity.

• Global coffee prices declined sharply in 2026, triggering financial risk for Ethiopian exporters holding inventories.
• Exporters face losses as current prices fall below previously held stock purchase price levels.
• Coffee generates over $1 billion annually, remaining Ethiopia’s top foreign exchange earner.
• Large volumes of unsold stock increase exposure to price volatility and liquidity pressure.
• Authorities warn continued hoarding could amplify sector-wide financial losses.
• Exporters urged to release stocks immediately to limit further price-driven losses.

why it matters?

With over $1 billion in annual export value, price declines and stockpiling risks can significantly reduce Ethiopia’s FX inflows and strain exporter finances.

• Ethiopia targets $3 billion in coffee export revenue this fiscal year. 

• Government plans to export 600,000 tonnes of coffee during the fiscal year. 

• First six months exports reached 200,000 tonnes, generating $1.35 billion. 

• Export volume achieved 74% of planned target despite strong revenue performance. 

• Authorities say some exporters withheld stock expecting higher prices or currency gains. 

• Government coordinating with Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority and regional bodies to prevent hoarding. 

Why it matters?
Coffee accounts for a major share of Ethiopia’s export earnings. Achieving the $3 billion target is critical for foreign exchange supply, while delayed shipments could affect export volumes and global market reliability. 

• Deal focuses on coffee development in Debeka, Abaya Woreda, West Guji Zone, Oromia region.

• Agreement includes quality systems, workforce capacity-building, and technical support for coffee value chain.

• Signed one day after Ethiopia–Brazil Trade and Investment Forum in Addis Ababa on Feb 6, 2026.

• Ethiopian government will follow up and support effective implementation of the partnership.

• Presence at signing included Brazilian ambassador and Embrapa president.

• Kerchanshe currently exports coffee seedlings to over 20 countries.

  
  

Why it matters?

The agreement establishes a formal technology and research cooperation framework between Ethiopian coffee sector firms and a major Brazilian agricultural research institution, potentially influencing coffee production quality and productivity in Ethiopia’s flagship export sector.