Key takeaways
- Above 9% annual real GDP growth is projected over three years in the EEA outlook reviewed by StockMarket.et.
- Each 1% output increase corresponded to only 0.27% employment growth on average during 2000–2025.
- Baseline inflation is forecast at 16.5% in 2026, easing to 14.9% by 2030.
- The inflation model’s 2025 estimate was 28.5%, versus the official 13.9%, an important forecasting limitation.
Why it matters
- Strong output growth does not imply equally strong job creation.
- These are model projections, not current inflation readings or guaranteed outcomes.
- Analysis: Persistent price pressure would complicate business budgeting, but the model’s historical mismatch warrants caution.
What to watch
- Actual employment and inflation compared with forecasts.
- Updated assumptions and evidence of stronger job creation.
Source: StockMarket.et | 11 November 2026 | Original report
Image: AI-generated editorial illustration.